Author: Daniel Sullivan

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Let’s play a game …

There’s “chatter” that the US will use nukes on Iran. I’ve discussed this MANY TIMES in the context of Iran and other potential conflicts. I’ve covered the “come as you are” conventional war scenario that was war gamed towards the end of the Cold War, and people realized THEN that high-intensity conventional conflicts could not be sustained for more than a few months of continuous combat operations. And we’ve reviewed “Madman at the Kremlin” scenario: this is where our government suspects that control of nuclear weapons in the former USSR are under the control of a mentally ill person or an irrational actor.

What about limited nuclear war? Is it feasible? H. Kahn studied it, at the Rand Corporation, and many of our theories of nuclear strategy, to include MAD, are based on his contributions. Both John Nash and Von Neumann contributed to the game theory support for limited/constrained nuclear conflict. They all thought that limited nuclear war, in certain special cases, was feasible.

Let’s say we launched a missile and it accidentally hit a Chinese target and killed 1 million Chinese immediately or as a result of radiation; in this scenario could we avoid full scale nuclear war? Well, sure – but it would mean horse trading. It would mean offering up a US city, perhaps randomly, with the same size population, roughly. In this scenario, it is in China’s best interest to accept the sacrifice. In this scenario, both sides can immediately declare a ceasefire and conduct talks. This is limited nuclear war.

What about Iran? – to our knowledge, Iran has no TRIAD, no first/second strike abilities other than conventional ballistic missiles. There is evidence that they MIGHT build a nuclear weapon, but so far there is no evidence of this.

Here are some questions:

  1. Do we have nukes that can penetrate DEEP ENOUGH to destroy the Iranian missile sites?
  2. Do we know where enough of the missile sites and nuke sites are?
  3. Do we use nukes on Tehran? If so, are they tactical and targeted at command and control and leadership OR is it a terror act intended to kill Iranians?
  4. If we use nukes, what do China and Russia do, singly or together?
  5. What is the whole world’s response to using nukes on Iran?
  6. How would the American people respond to Trump using nukes on Iran?
  7. Is the use of nukes a war crime?