Category: Economics

“I’m not a bear or a bull, I’m a realist.” – Dr. Freckles

1. tantric hyperinflation
2. plates spinning
3. one week crack up boom
4. clown show continues

Jerome Powell:

1. being chased by a BEAR
2. while he chases a tiger

“The US economy isn’t really a ‘free market’: it’s a network of linked and crooked casinos, the games at each casino might be sort of honest, but the linkages are corrupt as hell.” – Dr. Freckles

It’s not that traditional tools for financial analysis don’t work – they do: but if you disregard the crony nature of how things work, you are unlikely to make wise bets.

The TINA/FOMO BTFD folks were right all those years, and the rest of us screaming “bloody murder” were wrong – principles be damned, the death star economy is not about principles.

“It’s all make believe money, till someone expects to be paid.” – Dr. Freckles

1. homes
2. stocks
3. bonds
4. crypto
5. CRE

… and related derivatives products …

(what if the total were in the quadrillions)

Link: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052715/how-big-derivatives-market.asp

“Funny thing about inflation: it doesn’t mean much if you don’t have any money.” – Dr. Freckles

Yes – there’s been inflation.

No – I can’t say that the amount of free cash out there has been very extensive. Seems like poor folks still don’t have any cash – so if you have nothing, it’s kind of irrelevant what the price is.

“The hyperinflation already happened, the wheelbarrow was your home.” – Dr. Freckles

THEORY: that the US, and much of the developed world, has already experienced the “hyperinflation” phase of monetary collapse, but because the US economy is planned at this point, the money was directed towards mechanisms that impacted “expected value” without resulting in the expected increase in money velocity or consumer prices. Simply put: the Federal Reserve discovered a set of money-dumps that allowed them to forestall the inevitable, but the inevitable is still coming … the Great Depression will look like a “soft landing” compared to what is coming.

Link: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-loses-value-2023/

US GDP in 2021 was 23 trillion in $USD and change … US homes are valued, still, at two times this amount …

Apply just a 10 times derivative product valuation on top of the present home “value”, you’re looking at 1/4 of a QUADRILLION $USD …

(now tell me about hyperinflation)

… there were other money pits too, other ways to hide the hyperinflation …

1. wars
2. China
3. cryptos – basically a big make-work Keynesian project
4. stock buybacks
5. healthcare
6. education

Lots of money pits, or black holes, to dump inflation into …

But I think we had the hyperinflation …

What’s coming next is going to be different.

It didn’t work like Weimar because the cash was targeted, not random distribution …

IMPLICATIONS:

• Jerome is running from a Bear and chasing a Tiger (sort of impossible long term)
• The regime operates like a form of Austerity that began in 2020 and continues in various forms. But the money-pump, in many ways, must continue in some form … you can’t afford to blow out the bouncy castle, but you can’t afford to let it implode either … conserve that gasoline, save the pump, notice the holes in the castle … GREECE was one of their test programs.
• When the “hyperinflation” does hit, per se, it will be so fast that you will simply end up at shortages and nothing, you will wonder about the wheelbarrow …
• Your home was always the wheelbarrow.
• You will get very little warning when the worst of this hits, and then it will seem like the world flipped over.
• Inflation will “creep” until the end …
• Don’t expect a signal for when you should sell your home … just get out of the cities.
• This austerity regime matches the general strategy of “keep the plates spinning” until the end, and then let ACT 3 take care of the rest … What’s ACT 3? (we’ll find out together)