Category: Popping Smoke

Go back in time 18 years …

“Lucy, it’s happening again …”

Here’s what the master of analogies doesn’t say: the TINDER ACCUMULATES because the forest microbiome is DEAD … (he leaves that shit out in his comparison)

MP3: https://planetarystatusreport.com/mp3/20260325_FATWAH.mp3

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• I do not claim to be especially knowledgeable when compared to many fine military analysts on YouTube
• It’s been a couple decades since I cared enough to give WAR the amount of energy required to think beyond acceptance
• I don’t like giving energy to these evil things
• If you read beyond this point, these are just my bullet pointed opinions and QUESTIONS I have about any kind of war to defeat Iran
• I stick with this, no matter what the “EPSTEIN” files say: Trump has ONE MOVE LEFT that would avoid WW3, save his presidency, and potentially lead to multiple peace treaties to include ending the Ukraine War – THROW THE STATE OF ISRAEL UNDER THE BUS! Not gonna happen, but that’s his only rational move left.

1. Imagine we’re making a STEW? – add 1/4 Thucydides Trap, 1/4 Russo-Japanese War, 1/4 Gallipoli, 1/4 MARKET GARDEN. No matter how you look at this, no sane US President representing the USA would put the USA at risk like this, with such squishy and ambiguous goals. What if Trump is insane?
2. Let’s say Iran can deploy 20 divisions in total of conventional ground troops, mixed between Republican Guard and paramilitary/local militia. These 20 divisions are likely distributed, based on war plans, to the 10 separate military districts.
3. If the Iranians have learned the lessons of the Ukraine War and other US campaigns, then these military units are probably in hardened facilities with hardened supply depots and well camouflaged.
4. Best case: we use our air superiority to reduce ground forces by 33% once we identify their underground complexes. This means we still end up pounding through 20 divisions at 66% strength, but fighting on their own home front, with closer resupply. And I think the 33% is optimistic USAF bullshit.
5. Iran is NO-GO and SLOW-GO terrain, nearly all of it is mountains and desert. Lots of choke points and potential ambush locations.
6. The only avenues of approach that make sense are from the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, vectoring across the gulf. Or land approach from eastern Iraq. None of these would be effective unless the missile attacks stop.
7. No one really knows the full capability of Iran or if they could rapidly produce a few nukes in a few months. This is a wildcard.
8. We don’t really know if the PENTAGON has cards up its sleeves. We might have truly advanced weapons, generations beyond our opponents, but there is an argument to NOT use them. This same argument was made to Putin prior to the Ukraine War. If we show our cards, we can’t un-show them.
9. So far, if IRAN has the ability to project power via irregular forces and terrorist cells, we’ve not seen any major examples. There appears to be forces operating in Iraq against local US forces, but it’s not clear if these have a direct or indirect connection to Tehran.
10. The “big plan” is to take the other side of the Persian Gulf, and to hold it to a depth that the Iranians can’t fire missiles, rockets, at the gulf. This is insane given the range of Iranian rockets. I can’t imagine doing a “Bridge Too Far” / “Gallipoli” remake, but it’s looking that bad. Maybe a Kharg Island invasion is like “Task Force Smith” …. read about it.
11. Israel is still a wildcard. I know people want to believe in “moderate” Israelis, but these people might not exist in Israel. The people are being hammered and getting a taste of life in GAZA. Yet, as much damage as Iran could do, it seems they are still holding back. Is the SAMSON OPTION bluster or real? – we may soon find out. If the Iranians target critical Israeli infrastructure, like the desalinization plants, what will Israel do?
12. Could the Emirates and KSA survive long enough for us to use their nations as axes of logistical support and to attack from? These governments rule through force and goodies: goodies run out, means the atrocities skyrocket. Will Trump approve of the use of US military or contractors in support of KSA or Emirate atrocities? – we shall see.
13. Iran has about 30 submarines, 3 of which are deep water diesel electric Russian kilo-class and capable of firing cruise missiles. We don’t know their disposition, and I’m certain Trump would be bragging if all of these subs were gone. It’s my belief that they have running orders and are in comm silence. If they are at hardened facilities OR already out to sea? – then these subs are likely running deep and silent. Modern diesel electrics can be quite quiet and are capable of running underwater for many days using snorkels.
14. I do not like listening to or even reading Trump’s statements on Iran. Biden was a blithering and dithering idiot, but Trump is simply batshit crazy. It sounds like he’s getting crazier.
15. As we’ve discussed: 2-person game theory MAD hasn’t applied since China got the bomb, and for MAD to work all players must be rational. They don’t have to be good, you can have Joseph Stalin sitting across the table, you just can’t have Jim Jones on the other side. Current nuclear warfare theory says “madman in charge of missiles” you have no choice but decapitation strike. Trump looks that crazy.
16. I believe there is a 1/10 chance that the US has been lying about the refurbishment of nuclear weapons. Which would mean our deterrent would be about 1/1000th what we think it is. We have the fission stage, and in all these missiles that’s still a hefty 5-15kt of yield, but it’s not a dial ready 250kt-1mt hydrogen bomb. This is going to be a factor, if true.
17. I think the Iranians MIGHT HAVE advanced electronic warfare systems, coming from Russia, China, or both. They might also make their own. These types of weapons can do more than just jam a signal, they can impact electronics and disable fly-by-wire aircraft (F-35 is penultimate fly-by-wire). These weapons will be deployed if we invade Iran, and it will be bloody. They might have used this kind of weapon already, just to test it.

Understand: the above sketchy “war plan” would take at least 6 months to prepare, and this will be while the Iranians still have rockets/missiles and other weapons in hardened facilities that will attack us WHILE we are building up. There are no slam dunk avenues of approach into Tehran, and you would have to take Tehran. All of the Iranian missiles have a range that makes all of Iran capable of firing on the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz even IF Trump managed to take the other side.